The Egyptian Statistical Journal

📢 Call for Papers

The Egyptian Statistical Journal (ESJ) invites researchers and academics to submit their original research papers for publication in upcoming issues.

📊 Areas of interest include:
• Statistics and Applied Statistics
• Data Analysis and Data Science
• Probability Theory
• Demography and Population Studies
• Operations Research
• Statistical Applications in Various Fields

✨ Why publish with ESJ?

✅ Open Access Journal
✅ Blind Peer-Review Process
✅ No Publication Fees
✅ Indexed in leading academic databases
✅ Published by Cairo University
🏆 Rated 7/7 by the Egyptian Supreme Council of Universities

🚀 Share your research with a distinguished scientific community and contribute to the advancement of statistical knowledge.

📩 Submit your manuscript soon!
https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/

📢 متاح الآن تسجيل الندوة

يسر المجلات العلمية بكلية الدراسات العليا للبحوث الإحصائية – جامعة القاهرة، بالتعاون مع Emerald Publishing ، أن تعلن عن إتاحة تسجيل ندوة:

🎓 إتقان النشر الأكاديمي: من إعداد البحث إلى تعظيم تأثيره

قدمتها:
👩‍🏫 أ. ماهينور عقدة
مدير النشر والتدريب الإقليمي – Emerald Publishing

تتناول الندوة أهم خطوات النشر الأكاديمي، وكيفية إعداد بحث علمي متميز وتعظيم أثره وانتشاره العلمي.

🎥 يمكنكم الآن مشاهدة التسجيل والاستفادة من محتواه القيّم.
🔗 رابط مشاهدة الندوة: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1raf3gsLf31vO2vKooBVZyVRnEYeKADyd/view?usp=drive_link

https://publuu.com/flip-book/1121918/2502532

The Egyptian Statistical Journal | PDF Flipbook Online Flipbook created with Publuu Flipbook Maker.

Disability Prevalence among Older Adults in Egypt: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Author:
Heba Ramadan

Abstract:
Disability in older adults is an emerging public health concern, particularly in countries undergoing demographic transition such as Egypt. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of disability among older adults in Egypt and examine associated demographic and health factors. A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted using Google Scholar to identify Egyptian studies published up to September 2025. Eligible studies included adults with mean age≥ 60 years and reported prevalence of disability based on validated scales. Data were pooled using random-effects proportional meta-analysis. Fifteen cross-sectional studies involving 15,605 participants were included. The pooled prevalence of disability according to the Activities of Daily Living (ADL) scale was 40% (95% CI: 30- 51%), with 9% showing severe and 25% moderate disability. Based on the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) scale, the pooled prevalence was 59% (95% CI: 40- 77%). Disability was significantly more common among females (OR= 1.55, 95% CI: 1.36- 1.77) and increased with advancing age. Chronic diseases such as diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, stroke, and arthritis were frequently associated with dependency. Approximately two out of five Egyptian older adults experience some degree of disability, particularly in instrumental daily tasks. Preventive strategies addressing modifiable risk factors and enhancing community-based geriatric care are urgently needed to support healthy aging in Egypt.




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Eid al-Adha Mubarak...

An Extension of Three-Parameter Gamma Weibull Distribution: Properties, Estimation and Applications

Author:
Mona Abd-Elghafour Mobarak

Abstract:
This paper introduces a new four-parameter weighted distribution called the weighted gamma Weibull distribution. This new distribution is introduced by applying the weighted version to the baseline three-parameter gamma Weibull distribution. The probability density, cumulative distribution, reliability, and hazard rate functions of the new model are provided. The new model contains some lifetime distributions as special cases, including the gamma-Weibull, Weibull, gamma, weighted Weibull, Rayleigh, and exponential distributions, among others. Some statistical properties of the new model are discussed as moments, moment generating function, incomplete moments, inequality measures, entropy measures, and order statistics. The model parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood and least squares methods. Simulation results to assess the performance of the maximum likelihood and least square estimations are discussed at different values of parameters. In addition, two real data sets are fitted to examine the capability of the proposed model and compare it with some other well-known models.

Modelling Inflation Rate Using a Dynamic Autoregressive Time Series Regression Model

Authors:
Oyindamola R. Oyebanjo, Timothy O. Olatayo, Abass I. Taiwo and Buari H. Babatunde

Abstract:
The limitations of the conventional time series approach that captures periodic and seasonal datasets but fails to account for external macroeconomic influences brought about the development of a model called a Dynamic Autoregressive Time Series Regression (DATSR) Model, which integrates autoregressive dynamics, Fourier components, and exogenous variables into a unified forecasting framework. The model is used on Nigeria’s annual macroeconomic data from 1970 to 2024, where the inflation rate is the dependent variable and the exchange rate, gross domestic product, and foreign direct investment are the exogenous variables. The model was estimated using the ordinary least squares technique. The model was examined using diagnostic techniques to detect serial correlation, check its stationarity, multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, Akiake information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, coefficient of determination, adjusted coefficient of determination and the forecasting evaluation metrics to validate its performance. Therefore, the model is a better model for analysing and forecasting macroeconomic indicators influenced by periodic, seasonal and external influences.



Journal website: https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/
page: https://www.facebook.com/TheEgyptianStatisticalJournal
LinkedIn page: https://www.linkedin.com/.../the-egyptian-statistical...
Instagram page: https://www.instagram.com/esj_journal_cairouniversity/
WhatsApp: 010 44940680

تتقدم لجنة المجلات العلمية بالكلية بأسمى آيات التهنئة وأصدق الأمنيات إلى الأستاذة الدكتورة / سها متولي، بمناسبة صدور قرار ترقيتها إلى درجة أستاذ في تخصص الإحصاء، تقديرًا لما قدمته من جهود علمية وبحثية متميزة وإسهامات أكاديمية بارزة في مجال تخصصها.

وإذ تعرب اللجنة عن بالغ فخرها واعتزازها بهذا الإنجاز المستحق، فإنها تتمنى لسيادتها دوام التوفيق والسداد، ومزيدًا من التقدم والنجاح والعطاء العلمي المثمر، وأن يكلل مسيرتها الأكاديمية بمزيد من الإنجازات الرفيعة.

Performance Evaluation of Measures of Central Tendency (MCT) in Tackling Missing Data in Collinear Regressors: A Comparison of Linear Estimators

Authors:
Oluwatobi N. Ogunnusi, Timothy O. Olatayo, Biodun T. Efuwape and Abass I. Taiwo

Abstract:
The presence of missing data and multicollinearity in regression analysis poses significant challenges to the reliability and accuracy of model estimates. Missing data can lead to biased parameter estimates, while multicollinearity inflates standard errors, making it difficult to determine the true effect of independent variables. This research is motivated by the need to identify robust estimators that can effectively address these challenges and improve the accuracy of regression models used for economic forecasting. Three imputation methods, namely mean, median, and mode, were applied to treat missing values using data on the contribution of the transportation sector to Nigeria's economic growth, spanning between 1981 and 2023, followed by regression analysis using three types of estimators: Ordinary Least Squares Estimator, Ridge Regression Estimator, and Kibria-Lukman Estimator. Model performance was evaluated using Mean Squared Error and Root Mean Squared Error. Findings revealed pronounced multicollinearity among key subsectors, including air transport, transport services, and passenger services. Ordinary least squares estimates were unstable under these conditions, while ridge regression and the Kibria-Lukman estimator demonstrated improved stability and precision. Among the imputation techniques, mode imputation outperformed others by achieving the lowest error metrics. Road transport consistently exhibited a significant positive effect on GDP, underscoring its dominance in Nigeria's transport economy, while other subsectors contributed insignificantly. It is concluded that robust estimators combined with efficient imputation techniques enhance model validity and improve policy insights. This paper recommends adopting advanced statistical methods in economic modelling for informed decision-making.



Journal website: https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/
page: https://www.facebook.com/TheEgyptianStatisticalJournal
LinkedIn page: https://www.linkedin.com/.../the-egyptian-statistical...
Instagram page: https://www.instagram.com/esj_journal_cairouniversity/
WhatsApp: 010 44940680