Unbiased graphical and unique weather forecast in Mauritius based on latest numerical tools.
17/06/2026
The picture shows the summer and winter solstice for 2026 in the southern hemisphere and the difference in daylight duration for Mauritius.
Shape of the curve: The daylight duration start near 13 hours 19 min on Jan 1, decline to a trough of about 10 hours 54 min around the June winter solstice, then rise back up to about 13 hours 22 min by the December summer solstice, reflecting the seasonal swing in day length.
The animation is a rapid timelapse of earthquakes that occurred from 2021 extending up to the present time. Earthquakes do occur outside faults/trenches but are more moderate in intensity. The domain covers only part of Africa and Australia due to limited number of data that can be downloaded. Larger circles mean greater intensity. Notice the very active area near the Philippines.
The highest intensity in the central Indian Ocean during the last fifty years is 7.3 in November 1983 as shown in the second animation.
Credit: USGS, MSWI team.
13/06/2026
(1) A strong El Nino is forecast for the coming months. What is its implication for the Mascarene islands? El Nino modifies the Walker circulation and in doing so, shifts rainfall pattern and cyclogenesis across the globe. What is more relevant actually for the Mascarene islands is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). A positive IOD shifts moisture (i.e precipitation) towards the western Indian Ocean (Mascarene region). A negative IOD shifts moisture towards eastern Indian Ocean (near Australia), hence causing dry condition in our region. Check the actual graphs for the two indices.
(2) The low-level (850 hPa) circulation chart shows wind speed and direction (moisture migration) towards the Northern hemisphere which is typical during this period.
(3) Precipitation outlook: Below normal rainfall is expected in our region from 17 - 23 June 2026 according to NOAA.
Source data and credit: NOAA, Bureau of Meteorology (Australia), Hamburg University
10/06/2026
The synoptic chart shows an interesting scenario in the south west Indian Ocean which involves a cut-off low / depression located to the south-west of Mauritius and an anticyclone (subtropical high) to the south-east. The cut-off low has a central pressure of around 1006 hPa and pulls warm air (northerly component) into our region. Notice the convective clouds bearing heavy rain far away to the south of Mauritius. Strong winds are present in the region with closely packed isobars.
Stay tuned for updates!
Credit: CIMSS, SSEC, METEOBLUE
04/06/2026
Hello everyone! Moderate trades and rough seas are expected in the coming days as a rather strong anticyclone approaches our region from the south west.
Refer to local authorities for official forecasts.
Credit: Meteoblue
02/06/2026
The animation shows the distribution of cyclonic tracks from 2015 to 2026. Orange and red colors are regions with the highest density. The first picture is an analysis between Mascarene proximity index and Basin wide activity. In simple terms, occurrence of cyclones near the Mascarene islands compared to the eastern Indian Ocean. The second picture shows the regions where hotpots were most intense. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) are known to modulate cyclonic activity worldwide. These analyses are done to determine which regions could be more prone to cyclonic activity in the future.
Source data and credit: IBTRACS, MSWI team.
Scattered showers are expected mainly over elevated areas and the eastern districts in the afternoon and evening today 30 May 2026 as shown in the satellite pictures.
Refer to official forecasts from local authorities.
Credit: CIMSS, SSEC
Precipitation Outlook for the Mascarene islands: Below normal rainfall is expected for the first half of June 2026 as shown in the animation. Brown and yellow colors on the scale represent negative precipitation anomalies. The forecasted dry spell may be due to anticyclones, which often lead to stable atmospheric conditions with sinking air that suppresses cloud formation and rainfall, among other factors.
Slightly wetter conditions are expected for late June 2026. Green and blue colors on the scale indicate positive precipitation anomalies, meaning above-average rainfall.
Stay tuned for updates!
Credit: tropicaltidbits.com
Historical cyclones: Cyclone season 1959-1960 was a turning point in the history of Mauritius due to extensive infrastructural damage and societal impacts caused by cyclones Alix and Carol.
(1) Alix (11-22 Jan 1960) initially developed far North-East of Mauritius over very warm tropical waters, tracked westward / west-southwestward. This movement was probably steered by a subtropical ridge (Mascarene High) located to the south of the system, eventually recurved south (due to a weakness in the subtropical ridge) and finally accelerated southeastward. This is a common steering mechanism for tropical cyclones for the south west Indian Ocean. Alix is the first named storm of the basin and gusts of the order of 200 km/h were recorded and the number of deaths amounted to eight.
(2) Carol developed in late February 1960 (20 Feb-02 Mar) North-East of Mauritius and intensified rapidly while moving west-south-westward. The cyclone passed directly over Mauritius on 27–28 February 1960 and is regarded as one of the most violent cyclones ever to strike the island. Carol caused catastrophic destruction across Mauritius. Historical reports indicate: around 40 deaths, hundreds seriously injured, more than 68,000 homeless.
Refer to the animation for cyclone Alix and Carol.
The resilience of our elders for the reconstruction of the buildings after the aftermath is truly exemplary.
Credit: IBTRACS, Wikipedia, MSWI team.
Hello everyone! A slight drop in temperature is expected as an anticyclone approaches our region as shown in the satellite pictures. The second animation displays the progressive increase in wave height for the coming days.
Credit: CIMSS, SSEC, ECMWF