UNU-WIDER

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟭𝟬𝘁𝗵 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝗨𝗡𝗨-𝗪𝗜𝗗𝗘𝗥'𝘀 𝗦𝗢𝗨𝗧𝗛𝗠𝗢𝗗 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗺𝗲!

Looking back on a decade of tax-benefit microsimulation modelling, another key question emerges: what has kept the models relevant and useful over time? The answer lies in the research.

In our new SOUTHMOD at 10 magazines, we show how research drives the model beyond academia. From adapting to income shocks during COVID-19 to sharing innovations across countries, research turns SOUTHMOD into a dynamic and living tool.

Read the full article ‘𝘏𝘰𝘸 𝘙𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘤𝘩 𝘋𝘳𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘴 𝘚𝘖𝘜𝘛𝘏𝘔𝘖𝘋’ which is one of the feature stories in SOUTHMOD at 10 magazines: https://go.unu.edu/rBm0w

The magazine explores SOUTHMOD’s growth through collaboration, capacity building, and its impact across 13 countries in both academia and government: https://go.unu.edu/CA9Wt

Climate change is often discussed in terms of infrastructure, agriculture, and disaster response. But what happens when rising temperatures begin to show up in people’s earnings?

This was the focus of a recent SA-TIED Seminar Series session with Sefa Awaworyi Churchill of RMIT University, who presented new research on climate shocks, labour market dynamics, and inequality in South Africa.

The study links high-resolution satellite temperature data with administrative tax records from 2009 to 2022 to examine how temperature shocks affect earnings, total income, and labour market outcomes across sectors, demographic groups, and geographic areas.

The findings show that:

✓ Temperature shocks are associated with declines in earnings and total income
✓ Some sectors and workers appear more exposed than others
✓ Future climate scenarios using CMIP6 temperature projections suggest that continued warming could affect income levels in South Africa over the coming decades under different emissions pathways

Watch the recap here: https://go.unu.edu/FMi9n

🔎 An estimated 8–10% of private wealth is held offshore, often hidden in tax havens and concentrated among the wealthiest individuals.

But when the right policies are in place, this hidden wealth can be brought into view. In Argentina, a 2016 tax amnesty revealed previously undeclared assets equivalent to 21% of GDP—significantly expanding the tax base.

Our latest policy brief on illicit financial flows shows what works: stronger access to financial data, effective use of third-party reporting, and targeted enforcement strategies can significantly improve detection.

These findings and how to leverage administrative tax data to detect these flows is being discussed by our Research Associate Kwabena Adu-Ababio at today’s High-Level National Dialogue on illicit financial flows in Gaborone, Botswana.

The takeaway is clear: with the right data and policies, governments can make meaningful progress in curbing illicit financial flows and strengthening domestic resource mobilization.

📄 Read the policy brief: https://go.unu.edu/pYkwf
🔎 Learn more about the event: https://go.unu.edu/m2kjz

𝗨𝗡𝗨-𝗪𝗜𝗗𝗘𝗥’𝘀 𝗦𝗢𝗨𝗧𝗛𝗠𝗢𝗗 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀 𝟭𝟬 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿!

As we reflect on 10 years of tax-benefit microsimulation modelling around 13 countries, we were forced to ask ourselves these questions ‘Why SOUTHMOD for evidence-based policymaking? What gap did it fill?’

This is one of the key features in our newly release SOUTHMOD at 10 magazine, and the answers might surprise you!

Read the full article ‘𝘞𝘩𝘺 𝘚𝘖𝘜𝘛𝘏𝘔𝘖𝘋? 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘨𝘢𝘱 𝘪𝘵 𝘧𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘥’ which is one of the feature stories in SOUTHMOD at 10 magazines: https://go.unu.edu/mzZmR

This magazine traces how the SOUTHMOD project grew from an ambitious idea into a collaborative network of models, teams, and policy partnerships across Africa, Latin America, and Asia: https://go.unu.edu/CA9Wt

Developing countries face a financing gap of over $4 trillion annually to meet the Sustainable Development Goals. While development finance institutions (DFIs) play a key role, new research from UNU-WIDER shows that how they operate matters just as much as how much they invest.

Analyzing more than 24,000 infrastructure projects worldwide, the study finds:
• Not all DFIs play the same role – Multilateral development banks tend to operate in the riskiest environments, while bilateral institutions and export credit agencies support relatively safer projects.
• Risk reduction is more effective than direct lending – Instruments like guarantees are significantly better at mobilizing private capital than traditional loans.
• Context matters – In the poorest countries, guarantees alone are not enough; strong government support and policy frameworks are critical to de-risk investments.

The takeaway is clear: mobilizing private finance is not just about increasing funding—it’s about designing the right instruments and targeting them to country contexts.

As the global community looks for ways to scale up sustainable infrastructure investment, a more strategic use of development finance will be essential.

👉 Read the full paper: https://go.unu.edu/zo0Mr

As development financing tightens and debt pressures rise, African governments are increasingly looking inward—to their own data—to make smarter fiscal decisions.

The Conversation Africa has published a new article from Amina Ebrahim and Patricia Justino that highlights how South Africa, Uganda, and Zambia are using anonymised administrative tax data to better understand their economies and design more effective policies.

Through secure data labs, researchers and policymakers are uncovering insights that were previously invisible—on tax compliance gaps, the real impact of incentives, and how firms respond to policy changes.
And the results are tangible:
• Evidence from tax data has informed corporate tax reforms and employment incentives in South Africa
• In Uganda, analysis revealed large gaps in firm compliance and the high cost of tax incentives
• In Zambia, tax gap research directly shaped the 2026 national budget and audit strategy

These examples show what’s possible when governments invest in data systems, analytical capacity, and partnerships. Better evidence doesn’t just improve policy design—it leads to real-world impact, from stronger revenues to expanded public services.

💡 The takeaway: the data already exists. Unlocking its potential can help governments make more informed, effective, and equitable fiscal decisions.

Read more: https://go.unu.edu/cO4d1

Lant Pritchet and Martina Viarengo argue that a credible global poverty line should be set to about $21.50 (2017 PPP) per person per day.

This is roughly ten times the widely accepted extreme poverty line proposed by the World Bank but represents an amount below which people experience deprivation.

What happens to poverty numbers when we use a credible upper-bound poverty line, instead of extreme or national poverty lines?

Read our latest blog, '𝘙𝘢𝘪𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘣𝘢𝘳 – 𝘢𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘭𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘱𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘺 𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦,' to find out more: https://go.unu.edu/zYKfp

If you haven't had the chance to read our latest SOUTHMOD at 10 magazine, here are 6 figures that will tell you everything you need to know about the impact SOUTHMOD had this past decade 👇

Intrigued? Dive into the magazine: https://go.unu.edu/CA9Wt

In ten years, SOUTHMOD has become a go-to resource for researchers, government officials, and development partners working on tax–benefit analysis.

The extent of its network, grown through steady collaboration and capacity building, forms a broad evidence base that supports analysis across countries.

Its influence is visible in the body of work it created and in its external uptake, confirming SOUTHMOD’s recognition and relevance in academia and government circles.

UNU-WIDER

Why do some local economies continue to adapt, work, trade, and invest amid conflict, displacement, and repeated shocks?

This question was at the centre of an event in Washington, DC, launching of our new research partnership, Engines of Growth in Fragile Contexts, with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

The discussion highlighted three interconnected drivers of local resilience:
• jobs and livelihoods
• human capital and skills
• trust and collective action

A central message emerged: economic recovery cannot simply wait for peace.

Humanitarian response remains essential, but it must connect with longer-term efforts to strengthen local institutions, livelihoods, and cooperation.

The discussion also highlighted the importance of looking below national averages. Even in highly fragile settings, some communities sustain “islands of resilience”. Understanding what drives these differences, and which interventions work, for whom, and under what conditions, will be central to the partnership.

Thank you to colleagues at IFPRI, the World Bank Group,theInternational Rescue Committee, and the Cairo International Centre for Conflict Resolution, Peacekeeping and Peacebuildingfor the discussion.

💻 Watch the full event here: https://go.unu.edu/DRQEy

🎉Celebrating 10 years of SOUTHMOD 🎉

We are proud to mark a decade of SOUTHMOD, UNU-WIDER’s pioneering programme advancing the use of tax-benefit microsimulation models across the Global South.

Since its launch, SOUTHMOD helped analyse how fiscal policies affect poverty, inequality, and household welfare through its researchers, policymakers, and country partners.

To celebrate this milestone, we are excited to launch a special anniversary magazine. It reflects on 10 years of collaboration, innovation, and impact, from building country models to supporting policy design and capacity development across Africa, Latin America, and Asia.

✨ Discover insights, stories, and achievements from the SOUTHMOD community
✨ Learn how the programme has evolved and influenced policy analysis
✨ Explore the people and partnerships behind the models

Dive into the magazine: https://go.unu.edu/CA9Wt