War Studies

Is the facing a security paradox?

The Gulf states have been targeted by Iranian and over the past few months. Despite this glaring risk, Dr David Roberts notes there is a "weird omertà almost about stating the obvious”, as few local commentators or officials have addressed the fact that they host military deployments.

“They feel that they need these bases as a mechanism of fundamental ,” he explains. “At the same time, it creates this vector of insecurity that we are seeing at its fullest extent right now. They don’t know what to do.”

As a way forward, Dr Roberts proposes a blueprint for a gradual US withdrawal paired with a build-up of local military capabilities. The Gulf states have begun diversifying their alliances and developing their own defence industries. However, for now, Dr Roberts says they remain trapped in a "vise that they don't know a way out of yet."

🔗https://bit.ly/4xq5Rma

Why do so many emerging countries still invest in fighter jets, warships and other prestige platforms they cannot realistically sustain in conflict?

In a new Insight & Analysis piece, Dr Vinicius de Carvalho and Jackson Schneider argue that emerging countries should stop trying to imitate great powers and instead focus on "deterrence by denial": making aggression costly, slow and uncertain.

Drawing on the cases of Taiwan, Ukraine and Finland, they examine how distributed defence, low-cost technologies and national resilience can help states build credible deterrence without relying on expensive prestige platforms they may not be able to sustain in conflict.

Read more ↓
https://bit.ly/4xpMwl8

⏰ Next Monday: The Research Centre in International Relations (RCIR) is delighted to invite you to the book talk by Dr Adam B Lerner, ‘A Theory of Agency in International Politics’ to be published by Oxford University Press.

A Theory of Agency in International Politics offers a new social theory of agency in international politics. Instead of assuming who the persons of the international system are and which goals they pursue, Adam’s theory explains how social relationships of recognition empower actors at multiple levels to reason through goals and procedures for achieving them. He defines international agency as the capacity to make meaningful choices with impacts across state borders. Drawing on recognition theory, critical realist philosophy of science, and feminist theories of relational autonomy and care ethics, he offers a framework for understanding agency as an emergent property of social systems. This framework explains what agency means in real-world politics, as well as where it comes from, how it operates, and how it informs attributions of moral responsibility. Moreover, he develops theoretical tools to flip from the detached perspective of structure to the first-person perspective of agency, revealing patterns of affordances and obstacles through which agents reason in decision-making. Adam’s theory thus provides initial basis to—as in the film Being John Malkovich—begin travelling down the hallway into an agentive perspective on international politics.The book is an outcome of the Critical Actuarial Science Project supported by the British Academy. The Critical Actuarial Science Project is led by Dr Pauline Heinrichs and Adam B Lerner.

The book will be discussed by Dr Pauline Heinrichs, Lecturer in War Studies (Climate and Energy) and the event is chaired by Elif Kalaycioglu, Lecturer in International Relations, both at the Department of War Studies.

Please join us for this special event, followed by a Q&A and a drinks reception.

🗓️ 15 Jun | 🕓 16:00-18:00 | 📍Strand Campus
Join us🔗 https://ow.ly/kI4n50Zb2vz

After two years of war, Iran is weaker than before. But it is not more cautious.

In a new Editor’s Pick for Foreign Policy, Dr Rob Geist Pinfold argues that Tehran has abandoned its traditional strategy of “strategic patience” and emerged from the conflict more willing to take risks, escalate confrontations, and challenge its rivals.

"Iran is neither deterred, nor is it desperate for a deal. Instead, the regime’s new leaders are more assertive than ever."

What looks like a paradox is, in fact, a strategic recalculation.

Read more: https://bit.ly/4xqa8pK

How can a society build national resilience — before crisis hits?

In this third episode of The Helsinki Brief: Inside Finnish Intelligence and Security, Dr Paul McGarr is joined again by Hannamiina Tanninen of the Finnish Security and Intelligence Service (SUPO) to explore Finland’s 'comprehensive security' model — a point of reference in international debates on resilience.

They unpack what “comprehensive security” means in practice: an all-of-society approach designed to keep Finland functioning as normally as possible during crises, from major disruptions and natural disasters to heightened security threats.

The episode also looks at the foundations that make this approach work in Finland — including high public trust, the welfare state and mandatory conscription — and which elements of the Finnish model might be transferable elsewhere.

Now available to watch: https://bit.ly/4vEIPGl
And listen: https://bit.ly/4v4U9eZ

⏰ TOMORROW: Join us for the official book launch by Prof Simon Mabon. Sectarianism saturates our conversations about the Middle East, its politics and society, and the divide between Sunni and Shi’a captures headlines the world over. But in reality, sectarian difference is far from a uniquely Islamic phenomenon. Throughout the region, religious and communitarian schisms play out in politics, economics and theology, across religions and borders.

But how did these divisions come to be? And who is gaining from them?

Simon Mabon examines sectarianism in the modern Middle East, moving beyond our simplistic conceptions of ancient religious hatreds and violence. Sectarian identities are as much a product of colonial and post-colonial state building as they are of religious belief, and they operate as a means to include and exclude certain groups. Ranging from Iraq and Iran to Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Israel, Mabon explores how divisions are produced, regulated and contested over time—and how they have shaped the lives of people across the region.

This event serves as the official launch of Schism: The Story of Sectarianism in the Modern Middle East (https://yalebooks.co.uk/book/9780300276138/schism/), published by Yale University Press in May 2026.

🗓️ 12 June | 🕔 17:00 | 📍Strand Campus + Online
🔗https://ow.ly/OiLl50ZapGI

This one-day conference, hosted by Security & Defence PLuS, will bring together established leaders and recognised experts with rising and underrepresented voices to explore the future of strategy, security, and defence.

The Emerging Voices Series, which launched at Arizona State University in March 2026, pairs senior expertise with new ideas and talent, creating space for intergenerational dialogue and forward-looking debate.

The programme will explore a range of themes including leadership and innovation in contemporary security, the evolution of deterrence and escalation dynamics, alliances and the Indo-Pacific, and the strategic importance of the maritime and undersea domain.

🗓️ 18 Jun | 🕑 09:00-18:30 | 📍Strand Campus
Join us🔗https://ow.ly/5vAt50Z6Ivu

🚨 TODAY: This presentation is based on the work for a recent article which uses previously unexploited sources to provide a more detailed picture of the experience of one brigade in this important campaign. This enables a further exploration of the campaign, the fighting experienced, and the methods of the British Liberation Army - as well as the way it has been assessed by historians.

🗓️ 10 June | 🕐 13:00 | 📍Online
🔗https://ow.ly/jVFE50Z7AFb

What's next for spending?

With the Defence Investment Plan ( ) set to be published ahead of next month's summit, the future of the UK Armed Forces hangs in a delicate fiscal balance. Prof Michael Clarke warns that the upcoming Treasury settlement will dictate the military’s development: a £12bn package would mean definitive cuts, while £15bn–£18bn would likely force a mix of project delays and deferrals, leaving the UK struggling to hit its 2030 readiness goals.

For the Royal , Prof Clarke argues that the £41bn Dreadnought-class programme should be a "national priority”. For the , he highlights procurement of 23 medium-lift support helicopters as a high priority, while the RAF's sixth-generation Tempest stealth fighter ( ) is seen as vital to advancing robotics across British industry.

Asked what would have to give if something must, Prof Clarke's answer is timing. "Nobody's going to say we'll drop this capability or that capability, or we can get by without it, but it'll go on to the back burner, and so certain things will stay on track, and other things I suspect will be delayed,” he said.

🔗https://bit.ly/4oc4nHU

How became the breaking point for the war ceasefire?

Iran launched its first direct strikes on after warning that continued Israeli attacks on Lebanon would jeopardise diplomacy. Dr Rob Geist Pinfold points out that one of the most significant developments in the current conflict is that Iran’s growing abandonment of the logic that has defined its regional posture for years.

“Initially, the whole point of ‘forward defence’ was to prevent a state-on-state conflict between Israel and Iran”, Dr Pinfold explains. To this end, Iran invested heavily in and other allied groups in the region, including the Houthis in Yemen and various armed groups in and . Iran believed these proxies would enable it to project power and deter Israel more effectively than relying on its conventional military capabilities alone.

However, he argues that Iran has completely changed that dynamic. Rather than using proxy groups to fight on its behalf, Iran is “escalating itself as a state to fight for its proxy groups.”

🔗https://bit.ly/4vBhcOs