13D Research

The longer the valuation illusion is sustained, the more costly it will prove when rising interest rates force reality: “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

The end of the low volatility regime (continued). – 13D Research Why buybacks are a clear and present danger to the anomalous market they helped fuel.

U.S. money supply growth is shrinking, and history shows that when that happens, money velocity turns higher, which has inflationary implications.

Will Quantitative Tightening (QT), which is deflationary in theory, be inflationary in practice? The mounting evidence is saying “yes.”

This week, we saw for the first time the machines operating on the downside.

What are the markets telling us? Peak S&P 500? Inflation break-out? Bond break-down? Markets yearn to be free. Is this the year they will finally be freed from central bank intervention and manipulation?

Much higher oil prices could be the big surprise in 2018. Every major inflation since 1973 has been fueled by a surge in oil prices.

The U.S. dollar bear market is confirmed. What are the implications? Investors could face the most dangerous — and opportunistic — investment climate in 45 years.

UST bonds, which appear to be on the verge of a breakdown from a large topping-pattern, and the excesses in the U.S. stock-market, provide further evidence that investors could face the most dangerous — and opportunistic — investment climate in 45 years.

The U.S. dollar bear market is confirmed. What are the implications? Investors could face the most dangerous — and opportunistic — investment climate in 45 years.

"Many people believe technology only centralizes power rather than decentralize it.
There are important countertrends to this ... that take power from centralized systems and put it back into people’s hands."

Can blockchain disrupt social media? – 13D Research As opposition to Big Tech’s power intensifies, the concept of building a new backbone for social media is taking hold.

S&P 500 companies have been allocating approximately 40%-45% of their operating cash flow to capex since 2010, down from approximately 45%-50% in the years before the GFC (left). This reduction coincided with the declining share of EM capex in the global total since 2010 (right)

With the euro having rallied from 1.0388 on December 20, 2016 to a high of 1.1631 on July 20, 2017, this cover is a perfect example of peak interest and the power of contrary thinking. http://bit.ly/2BtpiND

Equities are trading less and less on fundamentals as index investing erodes price discovery. Sector rotations are suppressing volatility — thus fomenting complacency — as rules-based strategies obey the same rules.

Will the “black boxes” cause the next financial crisis? Risks are mounting as the algorithmic revolution in asset management accelerates.

“There’s no doubt that technology poses an existential threat to the world’s largest digital conglomerates.”

Can blockchain disrupt social media? – 13D Research As opposition to Big Tech’s power intensifies, the concept of building a new backbone for social media is taking hold.

Between the beginning of 2012 and 3Q17, investors poured roughly $4.5 bn into more than 200 Chinese startups. Over half of that investment has been made in just the last two years. http://bit.ly/2EYXm6L

More recently, the pound sterling depreciated by over 9% against the U.S. dollar from early June 2016 — the month of the Brexit vote — to the end of June 2017, but consumer price inflation growth accelerated from less than 1% to 2.6%.

If Quantitative Easing (QE) is inflationary in theory, but deflationary in practice, will… By raising the cost of capital, QT could tip the balance in favor of capital discipline.